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Mobile broadband to drive telecoms growth through 2015, predicts Ovum

TD-LTE is gathering momentum in China

There will be $ 213.8bn of new revenues up for grabs in high-potential telecoms segments between 2012 and 2015, according to a report from UK consultancy Ovum this week.

The report identifies 11 telecoms segments which will experience rapid growth and burgeoning revenues over the forecast period, with mobile broadband to generate the largest slice of the extra revenues ($ 92bn), followed by fixed broadband with $ 51bn.

“Telecoms operators around the world face a common challenge – maintaining positive revenue growth in the face of declining voice services and a maturing data market,” said John Lively, Ovum chief forecaster and author of the report. “They can successfully manage this transition by identifying and then capturing a part of the higher-potential segments. Securing some of this growth is imperative for players to avoid the consequences of stagnating revenues.”

Other key growth areas are IPTV, which will generate $ 20bn in extra revenues between 2012 and 2015, enterprise Ethernet services ($ 18bn), consumer services such as digital music downloads and subscriptions ($ 11.5bn), and managed and hosed IP voice ($ 9.2bn).

“In the consumer segment, telecoms companies will be competing with new over-the-top players, as well as traditional competitors,” said Lively. “Adopting a marketing approach that is tailored to consumer services will be key to success in this sector.”

For infrastructure vendors meanwhile, IP/Ethernet switches and routers, reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexers (ROADMs) and 40G/100G networking gear are key growth areas, and together will contribute $ 7.7bn in extra revenues between 2012 and 2015.

For optical component vendors, demand will continue to be more volatile than other segments, but 40G/100G components represent a key growth opportunity as well, according to Ovum.

“Infrastructure vendors must be well-positioned in one or more of the high-potential product segments, and in the higher-growth regions, to gain revenues above the industry average,” added Lively. “A key challenge will be maintaining a low-cost operational focus, while investing sufficiently in leading-edge technology development. Component makers should expect continued high volatility in market demand. Winning a piece of the 40G and 100G technology wave will be essential to avoid being left behind by their competitors.”


One comment

  1. Convergys 13/10/2011 @ 2:31 pm

    Mobile broadband will spur not just revenue, but the need for significant new investment in infrastructure, notably in backhaul networks – a place where, in the past, many a streaming video download has gone to die. Net net, as demand and revenue rise, so will costs. So the greater issue is not how much mobile operators make, but how much they keep, which all depends on their plans to monetize 4G. More discussion in this post by Convergys’ Mary Ann Tillman: http://www.convergys.com/insights/guest/4gs-groundhog-day/

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